A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the country and triggered disorder, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has possesses valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
